A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Autonomous emergency braking systems adapted to snowy road conditions improve drivers' perceived safety and trust

Objective: This study investigated drivers' evaluation of a conventional autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system on high and reduced tire–road friction and compared these results to those of an AEB system adaptive to the reduced tire–road friction by earlier braking. Current automated systems such as the AEB do not adapt the vehicle control strategy to the road friction; for example, on snowy roads. Because winter precipitation is associated with a 19% increase in traffic crashes and a 13% increase in injuries compared to dry conditions, the potential of conventional AEB to prevent collisions could be significantly improved by including friction in the control algorithm. Whereas adaption is not legally required for a conventional AEB system, higher automated functions will have to adapt to the current tire–road friction because human drivers will not be required to monitor the driving environment at all times. For automated driving functions to be used, high levels of perceived safety and trust of occupants have to be reached with new systems. The application case of an AEB is used to investigate drivers' evaluation depending on the road condition in order to gain knowledge for the design of future driving functions.

Methods: In a driving simulator, the conventional, nonadaptive AEB was evaluated on dry roads with high friction (μ = 1) and on snowy roads with reduced friction (μ = 0.3). In addition, an AEB system adapted to road friction was designed for this study and compared with the conventional AEB on snowy roads with reduced friction. Ninety-six drivers (48 males, 48 females) assigned to 5 age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, and 60–75 years) drove with AEB in the simulator. The drivers observed and evaluated the AEB's braking actions in response to an imminent rear-end collision at an intersection.

Results: The results show that drivers' safety and trust in the conventional AEB were significantly lower on snowy roads, and the nonadaptive autonomous braking strategy was considered less appropriate on snowy roads compared to dry roads. As expected, the adaptive AEB braking strategy was considered more appropriate for snowy roads than the nonadaptive strategy. In conditions of reduced friction, drivers' subjective safety and trust were significantly improved when driving with the adaptive AEB compared to the conventional AEB. Women felt less safe than men when AEB was braking. Differences between age groups were not of statistical significance.

Conclusions: Drivers notice the adaptation of the autonomous braking strategy on snowy roads with reduced friction. On snowy roads, they feel safer and trust the adaptive system more than the nonadaptive automation.     

洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

石油化工催化剂生产过程中的职业病防治及应急处理

石化企业使用了大量的催化剂,催化剂开发、生产过程复杂,有许多原料和生产工艺,存在许多潜在的安全隐患和职业病危害因素。为预防催化剂生产过程中的事故,通过分析催化剂生产过程中的职业病危害分析,提出了相应的职业病防范及应急处置措施,加强催化剂生产过程中的职业病防治和应急处置能力,创造良好的经济、生态和社会效益,有效防止催化剂生产过程中发生安全事故和职业病。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

应急救援物资车辆运输线路的选择

为了给紧急救援物资支持保障中心的物资调度人员提供科学的车辆路线调度决策方法,提高应急救援工作的响应能力,基于应急条件下物资运输调度的时效性、安全性和经济性特征,运用旅行商理论,对上述3个决策属性分量进行了数学描述,构造了它们的目标函数,并进行了无量纲和权重聚合处理,继而按照多属性决策理论建立了用来评价备选线路决策效用函数的数学模型.利用期望效用属性合并所搜集的信息,将多属性决策问题转化成单属性决策问题,确立了选择具有最高期望效用方案的方法,最后进行了实例分析.结果表明,应急救援条件下的运输调度与正常环境下的企业运输调度决策目标之间存在明显的差异,前者虽然本质上属于图论中最短路线问题的范畴,但由于多个决策目标的存在,不能直接运用最短路线模型和Dijkstra算法求解.运用多属性决策理论建立的评价备选线路决策效用函数,是有关人员进行车辆路线安排的有效方法,但其相对优越性尚需做进一步的研究和探讨.     

面向突发事件智能建筑管理系统的集成结构

为了实现面向突发事件的智能建筑管理系统(IBMS),提出了智能建筑突发事件的抽象模型、基本运算操作及优先权分配机制,并根据突发事件监控和管理的目标,提出了IBMS的"分布式虚拟应急中心"集成结构.     

城市天然气工程环境风险评价

结合广州、深圳、东莞、佛山等城市的天然气工程情况,对城市天然气工程的环境风险评价进行了讨论,并采用穆尔哈斯(Moorhowse)和普里恰特(Prichard)提出的热辐射预测模式和爆炸冲击波预测模式对城市天然气工程进行了风险评价.结果表明,如果发生天然气泄漏并引起火灾,假设在10 min以内,城市门站、调压站和城市高中压管道的火球对建筑物和设备的严重损害范围( A 级)最远距离分别为35.8 m、18.0 m和28.7 m,爆炸冲击波严重损害范围( C1 级)分别为距事故处54.8 m、27.8 m和44.4 m.最后从城市门站、调压站选址及输气管道选线、安全防范距离、作业过程中的风险控制与管理以及事故应急对策四方面提出了风险事故的防范措施与对策.